Professional forecasters lower Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2020

Source: Xinhua | 2020-06-16

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced in a report on Monday that economists and analysts polled in the survey of professional forecasters expect Singapore's 2020 economic growth to come in at -5.8 percent.

This is the second time for the respondents to downgrade the whole-year forecast within this year. In the survey report that the MAS released in March, they revised downward Singapore's estimated GDP growth for 2020 from 1.5 percent to 0.6 percent.

In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to contract by 11.8 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2020, and to contract by 6.3 percent and 3.2 percent respectively for the third and fourth quarter of this year.

As for inflation, they forecast that Singapore's Consumer Price Index for all items (CPI-All Items) would fall 0.5 percent in 2020, and the MAS core inflation, which excludes the costs of accommodation and private road transport, would come in at -0.5 percent.

The economists and analysts forecast that Singapore's economy would contract by 5.8 percent in 2021, when the CPI-All Items inflation and the MAS core inflation are forecast to both come in at -0.5 percent.

According to the report, an escalation in the COVID-19 situation continues topping the list of downside risks to Singapore's growth outlook identified by respondents, with 94.4 percent of respondents citing it and 72.2 percent ranking it as the top downside risk.

Other major downside risks identified by the economists and analysts include an escalation in trade tensions and the risks stemming from a deterioration in the labor market, including a rise in unemployment.

The MAS said this month's survey report reflects the views received from 23 respondents and does not represent MAS' views or forecasts.