2019 growth to slow to 6.3%, says new study

Source: Xinhua | 2018-12-25

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has forecast China’s economy will grow by 6.3 percent in 2019, and that the country’s investment sector will see reasonable and stable growth while consumption remains relatively robust and exports continue to grow.

The academy said the world’s second largest economy will further lose growth momentum during the next 12 months due to factors such as declining labor supply.

In September, it said growth would slip below 6.5 percent from about 6.7 percent in 2018.

However, the country’s investment sector will see reasonable and stable growth while consumption will remain relatively robust and exports will continue to grow at a slower pace, the academy said in its latest report.

More specifically, the total social investment in fixed assets will reach 81.4 trillion yuan (US$11.8 trillion) in 2019, with nominal growth of 5.6 percent and real growth of 0.4 percent, decreasing by 0.9 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from a year earlier.

CASS expects that overall retail sales of consumer goods will hit 43.3 trillion yuan, up 8.4 percent in nominal terms and 6.0 percent in real terms.

That growth rate will drop by 0.7 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points respectively from the previous year.

The consumer price index growth is estimated to be 2.5 percent in 2019, up 0.3 percentage points from the same period a year earlier.

The study predicted the producer price index growth will fall 0.4 percentage points to 3.6 percent, which means lower pressure on prices.

Per capita net income of rural residents and disposable income of urban residents in real terms will grow 6.3 percent and 5.4 percent.